A mere two months prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for missing a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if his displays were a sign or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. As the in-form star curled home his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough proposition to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team registered an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side that have put together 10 in a row, they look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United managed more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would be third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
