A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
